The marriage of convenience that is reshaping the world order –
Such support may be risky, says Havrén, given China’s continued dependence on exporting to the West. “China needs to be careful,” she says. “But the bigger risk is seeing Russia lose the war. If Putin loses, he would lose, in China’s thinking, to the West and to the US. And China does not want that.”
For China there are other benefits to helping Russia continue the Ukraine war, especially in the lessons it can learn.
“For China, the war in Ukraine is almost like a giant laboratory experiment,” says Ivanov. “It can see what would happen if conflict over Taiwan leads to its global isolation. I think the Chinese military is definitely learning lessons from Russia and its campaign in Ukraine, but it’s also the Chinese economic policymakers [who are learning] what happens when a major power is globally isolated and sanctioned the way that Russia has been.”
The West’s response
If China has been clear that it sees Russia as a key ally in its confrontation with the West, many Western governments fully reciprocate – increasingly seeing China and Russia as part of the same threat.
Last week, British police charged three men, including a former Royal Marine, with spying for China under the National Security Act. Meanwhile, China has grown increasingly assertive in the South China Sea, sending coast guard and naval vessels to engage in water-cannon duels with Filipino vessels over disputed shoals.
As Russia chains its economy to China, the collective West – including the US and Europe – is trying its best to break any bonds. The European Union has urged its members to “derisk” their economic relations with China over the next three years. The US talks about “uncoupling”.
Microsoft is reportedly asking up to 800 employees in China if they’d consider leaving the country as tensions between the US and China continue to grow, notably over the key technology of artificial intelligence.
“If you look across the board, there is an espionage war, a full-on economic war in which the theft of intellectual property continues essentially unabated, a full-on technology war, a full-on political war, with China proposing a completely alternative world system, and of course, a war for allies and proxies,” says Auslin.
For some analysts, such as Ivanov, the outcome of that war is inevitable: “What we’re going through at the moment is the transition to the multipolar world, and it’s a very chaotic transition. Whether we like it or not, the dominance of that sort of US-led, Western order is over. We are moving into an era of multipower competition, which will be quite chaotic for years to come.”
Full Story: https://citynewsng.com/2024/05/18/xi-and-putin-the-marriage-of-convenience-that-is-reshaping-the-world-order/
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